How it works

we crowdsource NFL picks — but not just based on popularity. We combine your football knowledge with data-driven weighting to generate smarter, sharper predictions each week.

1. Complete the polls

Each week during the NFL season, we post a set of polls for upcoming games. You’ll choose who you think will cover the spread, and assign a confidence rating from 1 to 5 on each pick.

• 🔹 1 = Least Confident
• 🔹 5 = Most Confident

2. Your Track Record Matters

We track how accurate your picks have been over time. The more accurate you are, the more weight your future picks carry.

• 🔹 High accuracy = High weight
• 🔹 Low accuracy = Low weight
• 🔹 Consistently wrong? Your picks may be inversely weighted

(yes, being wrong can be useful)

This system helps surface insights from sharp users while fading unreliable ones.

3. Swarm Predictions

The Algorithm aggregates picks in real time— factoring in confidence and historical accuracy — to generate Swarm Predictions for each game. It creates a data-enhanced consensus you can use to guide your bets.

4. Why it works

The Swarm's Best bet Predictions were accurate 85.71% (30-5-1) of the time in the 2024 NFL Season. Unlike traditional polls or betting trends, The Swarm doesn't treat every opinion equally. It adapts over time to reward performance and adjust for bias.